Nigeria’s poverty crisis has worsened dramatically, with nearly two-thirds of the population now living below the poverty line, even as inflation shows signs of easing, according to the World Bank.
In its latest Nigeria Development Update (April 2026) titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development, the global lender revealed that poverty levels climbed steadily from 56% in 2023 to 61% in 2024, before reaching a troubling 63% in 2025 affecting an estimated 140 million Nigerians.
The report highlights a troubling disconnect: while inflation has declined significantly, everyday Nigerians are yet to feel meaningful relief.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that headline inflation dropped from 34.8% in December 2024 to 15.15% in December 2025. Food inflation also fell sharply from 39.84% to 10.84% within the same period. Yet, despite this improvement, living conditions remain harsh.
According to the World Bank, inflation though lower, remains high enough to erode purchasing power, meaning household incomes are still struggling to catch up with the cost of living.
Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated.
The report attributes Nigeria’s worsening poverty levels to several key factors:
- Lingering impact of past inflation spikes, which weakened real incomes
- Global economic shocks, including the Middle East conflict, driving up energy and food prices
- Weak agricultural growth, despite the sector employing the majority of poor Nigerians
While sectors like services and industry have recorded growth, agriculture—where most low-income Nigerians work—has lagged behind. This imbalance has slowed the translation of economic growth into real improvements in living standards.
Despite the grim outlook, the World Bank projects a gradual decline in poverty beginning in 2026, driven by easing inflation and modest economic recovery.
Poverty is expected to fall slightly to about 59% by 2028, but the pace will remain slow due to structural challenges such as:
- Weak job creation
- Low agricultural productivity
- Persistent inequality
The bank stressed that economic growth alone is not enough it must be inclusive and generate jobs to make a real impact.
Speaking at the report launch in Abuja, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, warned that inflation continues to undermine progress.
He emphasized that reducing inflation sustainably and ensuring inclusive growth are critical to improving living standards.
Early childhood development, he noted, is essential, describing it as “the foundation for productivity and poverty reduction.
Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, reaffirmed the government’s commitment to lifting millions out of poverty through investment-driven growth and targeted social support.
He said reforms are focused on:
- Attracting investments
- Creating jobs
- Expanding social safety nets
According to him, digital cash transfers and targeted interventions are being deployed to support vulnerable Nigerians amid rising living costs. Support for the poor and vulnerable is essential in any caring society, Edun stated.
The report underscores a stark reality: lower inflation does not automatically translate to better living conditions.
For millions of Nigerians, the effects of past economic shocks, weak income growth, and structural inefficiencies continue to bite raising urgent questions about the effectiveness of current reforms.
Without deeper structural changes and inclusive policies, Nigeria’s path out of poverty may remain slow and uncertain.
