Bitcoin (BTC) traded firmly above $117,000 on Thursday, September 18, 2025, after rebounding from key support levels. The surge followed the US Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate cut, which reinforced risk-on sentiment across global markets.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not only trimmed rates by 25 bps but also signaled the possibility of two more cuts in 2025, lowering the average policy rate forecast to 3.6% by year-end, compared to the June projection of 3.9%.
This dovish outlook has bolstered appetite for riskier assets, with Bitcoin now eyeing the $120,000 psychological level. Projections for 2026 and 2027 were also revised downward, further supporting bullish sentiment.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s current momentum is being driven largely by retail investors, while whale inflows remain muted. Wallets holding between 0.001 and 0.01 BTC accumulated nearly 719,000 BTC, signaling robust participation from small holders.
This retail-driven momentum is providing the foundation for a gradual climb toward $120,000, though analysts caution that any sudden surge in whale activity could trigger swift corrections.
Data from SoSoValue indicated that Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a mild $51.28 million outflow on Wednesday, ending a streak of consistent inflows since September 8. Analysts attributed the slowdown to institutions adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed decision.
Technical Outlook
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Support: BTC recently bounced from $116,000, now acting as strong support.
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Resistance: The next major test lies at $120,000, a psychological barrier.
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Indicators:
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 61, suggesting steady bullish momentum.
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The MACD maintains a bullish crossover since September 6, supporting an upward trajectory.
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Downside Risk: A close below $116,000 could expose BTC to the 50-day EMA at $113,800.
If Bitcoin sustains its current momentum, a test of the $120,000 level appears likely in the near term. However, analysts advise caution as retail-led rallies are more vulnerable to sudden reversals if institutional players or whales re-enter aggressively.
