According to recent polls conducted by SSRS, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has a distinct lead in the race for the White House in two pivotal Southern states.
In Georgia, likely voters are nearly evenly split, with Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%. In North Carolina, Harris leads slightly, 48% to Trump’s 47%. The results are within the margin of error, indicating a close race in both states.
Georgia and North Carolina remain fiercely contested battlegrounds this election cycle. North Carolina, a state that narrowly voted for Barack Obama in 2008, has since leaned Republican in recent elections. However, in 2020, it was the state where Trump’s win was narrowest.
Georgia, in contrast, was won by Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 1 percentage point, making him the first Democratic candidate to win there since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Compared to previous polling in late August and September, there has been little change in voter sentiment in these states.
Most likely voters (95%) have made up their minds, leaving few undecided voters. More than half have already voted, with these early ballots favouring Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and 6 points in North Carolina.
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Among Harris supporters, the majority in both states 69% in Georgia and 67% in North Carolina say their vote is primarily in support of Harris, not just opposition to Trump.
This is a higher level of positive support than found in other battleground states, where the average is closer to 60%. Much of this support comes from Harris’s Black voters, of whom approximately 80% in both states say they are voting to endorse her directly.
However, Black voters in these states are less likely than White voters to describe themselves as “extremely motivated” to vote.
Trump’s supporters are also steadfast, with 81% in Georgia and 75% in North Carolina saying their vote is driven by support for him rather than opposition to Harris.
This support level is consistent with Trump backers in other competitive states.
In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein holds a clear lead over Republican Mark Robinson, polling at 53% to Robinson’s 37%.
This margin is bolstered by some Trump supporters who are splitting their vote down-ballot, with 77% supporting Robinson but 10% leaning toward Stein.
While the political climates of Georgia and North Carolina show similarities, some differences are notable. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are comparably low in both states, with 39% approval in North Carolina and 37% in Georgia.
However, his administration’s handling of the response to Hurricane Helene is rated more favourably in Georgia (42% approval) than in North Carolina (36%), though a significant percentage of voters in both states remain uncertain.
Harris leads among Black voters (84% to 13% in Georgia, 78% to 19% in North Carolina) and college-educated voters (55% to 39% in Georgia, 53% to 42% in North Carolina).
White college graduates are nearly evenly split, while Trump has a significant lead among White voters without college degrees (81% to 15% in Georgia and 65% to 31% in North Carolina).
In North Carolina, Trump holds a 7-point lead among men, while Harris leads by 9 points among women. In Georgia, men similarly favor Trump, but the race is much closer among women.
Harris leads substantially among urban voters in both states, while Trump dominates in rural areas. Suburban voters in Georgia are evenly divided, while North Carolina suburbs lean toward Harris.
In these states, voters are prioritizing candidates’ positions on key issues over their leadership style or character traits, with 58% in Georgia and 56% in North Carolina indicating that issues are more important in their decision-making.
Trump leads in voter trust to handle immigration, foreign policy, and the economy, while Harris is favored on abortion and reproductive rights.
Voters are closely split on which candidate they trust to safeguard democracy, though Harris is viewed as more empathetic and honest, while Trump is perceived as more likely to bring change.
Confidence in election integrity is high in both states, with about 80% of likely voters saying they trust votes will be accurately counted. This rises to nearly 90% among Harris supporters, while 74% of Trump supporters in North Carolina and two-thirds in Georgia express the same confidence.
Polling data were gathered from registered voters between October 23-28, 2024, through online and phone interviews. In Georgia, 732 voters were polled, and in North Carolina, 750. The margin of error for likely voters is ±4.7 points in Georgia and ±4.5 points in North Carolina.