Violent attacks linked to Islamist militant groups have surged significantly across parts of northwestern Nigeria, with new data revealing an alarming escalation in both incidents and fatalities.
A report released on Thursday by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) disclosed that terrorist-related violence in the tri-border region covering Nigeria, Niger Republic, and Benin Republic increased sharply between 2024 and 2025.
According to the report, violent incidents involving jihadist groups operating in Nigeria’s Sokoto State, Kebbi State, Niger State, and Kwara State rose by 86 percent, while fatalities associated with the attacks recorded a staggering 262 percent increase within the same period.
ACLED noted that fighters affiliated with both al-Qaeda and Islamic State networks have intensified operations across frontier regions, extending their reach beyond traditional insurgency zones.
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The report identified expanding militant activities in Benin Republic’s Alibori and Borgou departments as well as Niger Republic’s Dosso region, describing the trend as evidence of a “continued spread, growing lethality, and rising risks to civilians.”
Security analysts warn that increased communication and operational coordination among extremist factions suggest heightened rivalry and possible escalation of violence across the region.
The report attributed the growing insecurity to porous international borders, sparse government presence, and limited security infrastructure in remote communities. These conditions have enabled militants to move fighters, access supplies, and establish influence within vulnerable local populations.
ACLED further stressed that jihadist activities in northwest Nigeria are becoming more organised and deadly, marking a shift from the long-standing insurgency largely concentrated in the northeast.
Nigeria has battled Islamist insurgency for over 15 years, mainly driven by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province in the northeast.
However, al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State-aligned factions operating under the Sahel Province have increasingly penetrated northwestern corridors where dense forests and weak state control offer operational advantages.
The expansion of extremist groups across West Africa has also contributed to political instability, including military coups recorded in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger since 2
Efforts to counter terrorism have weakened amid shifting political dynamics in the Sahel. Military-led governments in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali have scaled back participation in regional security alliances, undermining coordinated counterterrorism operations.
The report warned that growing competition among jihadist factions for territorial dominance could further intensify attacks and worsen civilian casualties across border communities.
Security fears remain heightened following deadly attacks in parts of Nigeria. Earlier this month, armed bandits reportedly attacked Woro village in Kwara State, killing at least 35 residents in one of the state’s deadliest incidents this year.
In response to worsening insecurity nationwide, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu previously ordered the withdrawal of police personnel attached to VIPs for redeployment to frontline policing duties.
ACLED cautioned that without stronger governance, improved border control, and renewed regional collaboration, the surge in militant violence could further threaten stability across Nigeria and the wider West African subregion.
