ABUJA: Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined slightly to 15.06 percent year-on-year in February 2026, indicating a modest easing in overall price growth even as monthly inflationary pressures increased due to seasonal factors.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped marginally from 15.10 percent recorded in January 2026. The slight reduction suggests a gradual moderation in inflation over the past months.
However, the month-on-month inflation rate rose to 2.01 percent in February, reversing the –2.88 percent recorded in January, highlighting a fresh surge in prices within the month.
Analysts attribute the increase in monthly price pressures largely to Ramadan-related demand, as households typically increase purchases of food items and other essentials ahead of the fasting period. This surge in early bulk-buying, combined with reduced farming activities during the period, has pushed up the prices of several staple foods.
Read also:
Economic analysts at Meristem Securities noted that food prices may continue to experience upward pressure due to seasonal demand.
According to the firm, Ramadan-related stockpiling and reduced agricultural output during the fasting season have historically driven price increases in major staples, which in turn affect overall inflation figures.
Data from Meristem’s commodity price tracker revealed that prices of key food items have begun to rise again after several months of declines. Staples such as maize and sorghum, which had recorded consistent price drops, are now showing signs of recovery, while paddy rice and soybeans posted stronger price increases during the period.
Despite the marginal decline in the annual inflation figure, the latest reading fell short of many analysts’ expectations. Some economic forecasts had projected inflation to fall further to between 13 and 14 percent year-on-year.
For instance, analysts at Meristem had earlier projected Nigeria’s inflation rate to decline to about 13.48 percent year-on-year, suggesting that price moderation might have been slower than expected.
Food inflation recorded the sharpest increase on a monthly basis, rising 10.70 percent, while core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose by 2.5 percent.
Nevertheless, analysts believe inflationary pressures may continue to moderate in the coming months, especially as fuel prices and exchange rate movements begin to stabilise.
According to Meristem researchers, core inflation is expected to maintain a downward trend on a year-on-year basis, supported by relatively cheaper fuel prices and the appreciation of the local currency.
Fuel costs have recently declined following a price adjustment by the Dangote Refinery, which cut its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by N25 per litre, reducing it from N799 to N774 per litre in February.
The reduction is expected to lower transportation and energy costs, both of which significantly influence the core inflation index.
In addition, the Nigerian naira strengthened during the month, appreciating 4.32 percent month-on-month. The currency averaged N1,355.34 per dollar at the official foreign exchange window in February, compared with N1,416.52 per dollar recorded in January.
The improvement in the exchange rate has helped reduce import-related cost pressures and may further support inflation moderation if the trend continues.
Economists, however, caution that seasonal food demand, agricultural supply constraints and broader structural issues in Nigeria’s food production system could still create periodic spikes in monthly inflation figures, even as the annual rate gradually declines.
