Nigeria’s non-oil exporters are increasingly looking toward China as a strategic alternative market following Beijing’s decision to eliminate tariffs on a wide range of African goods, creating fresh export opportunities at a time of growing trade uncertainty with the United States.
The zero-duty policy, scheduled to take effect from May 1, is expected to cover several agricultural and mineral products, significantly reducing entry costs for Nigerian exporters seeking to diversify away from traditional Western destinations.
The development comes as trade conditions in the United States tighten under President Donald Trump, whose administration recently raised blanket tariffs from 10 percent to 15 percent within 24 hours using emergency trade powers after earlier measures were struck down by the Supreme Court.
Export analyst Obiora Madu noted that Nigerian exporters are likely to redirect shipments toward China, particularly for products already in demand within the Asian market.
According to trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Nigeria’s exports to the United States declined by 14 percent in 2025 to $4.9 billion, down from $5.7 billion recorded in 2024.
Energy products continue to dominate exports to the US, accounting for more than 90 percent of shipments, while smaller volumes of fertilisers, lead, oil seeds, and cocoa beans also feature.
In contrast, Nigeria’s exports to China have expanded significantly, rising by about 81 percent within three years to reach $3.17 billion in 2025 from roughly $1.6 billion in 2022, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
Chairman of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture Export Group, Kola Awe, explained that previous tariff structures forced many Nigerian exporters to route goods through neighbouring countries such as Niger Republic before shipment to China.
He revealed that nearly 80 percent of Nigeria’s sesame exports were historically channelled through Niger due to lower tariff advantages, a practice that prevented such trade volumes from being officially captured as Nigerian exports.
With tariffs now removed, exporters are expected to ship directly from Nigeria.
Agricultural products such as tiger nuts and baobab are also projected to gain wider access to Chinese markets, especially as preliminary processing activities like cleaning and sorting remain cheaper in China compared to Western economies with higher labour costs.
Despite shifting global trade dynamics, stakeholders insist that the United States will remain an important export destination, particularly for specialised and value-added manufactured goods.
Secretary-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi, stated that exporters could still benefit from niche American markets where branding and quality command premium pricing.
Nigeria also continues to enjoy preferential access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows eligible African exports to enter the US duty-free until its scheduled expiration in December 2026. However, uncertainty surrounding future US trade policies may weaken exporter confidence.
Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, noted that although AGOA was enacted by the US Congress and may not be directly overridden, broader policy shifts including recent visa restrictions affecting Nigerians — could complicate trade relations.
Industry experts cautioned that entering the Chinese market will require more than tariff advantages.
Manufacturers must understand consumer preferences, meet regulatory standards, and establish effective distribution networks before achieving meaningful penetration.
Analysts further stressed the need for stronger institutional support from agencies such as the Nigerian Export Promotion Council to improve product standards and competitiveness, warning that increased demand from China could expose supply-side weaknesses within Nigeria’s export ecosystem.
While China’s tariff removal presents a major opportunity, stakeholders agree that success will ultimately depend on Nigeria’s ability to scale production, maintain quality standards, and strategically position its non-oil exports in an increasingly competitive global market.
