China’s population continued to shrink in the three years leading up to 2024, as a modest rise in births last year failed to offset the number of deaths, a trend analysts say is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
Despite the slight uptick in births in 2024, demographic data show that deaths still outpaced new births, reinforcing concerns over the country’s long-term population decline.
People aged 60 and above now account for more than 20 per cent of China’s 1.4 billion population.
United Nations projections suggest the figure could rise dramatically, with older citizens potentially making up as much as half of the population by 2100.
Experts warn that the rapid ageing of China’s population could have far-reaching consequences, affecting economic growth, labour supply and the country’s ambition to rival the United States as a global military power.
In response, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly highlighted the need for population security, describing the development of a high-quality population as a national priority.
Analysts expect Beijing to roll out additional policies and incentives in the coming year to encourage marriage and childbearing.
However, many Chinese citizens argue that boosting birth rates will require tackling deeper structural problems. These include high youth unemployment, the rising cost of raising children, and what is widely perceived as a disproportionate burden of childcare and family responsibilities placed on women.
Without addressing these underlying challenges, analysts caution that policy incentives alone may struggle to reverse China’s demographic decline.
