LONDON: Security analyst Bulama Bukarti has cautioned that Nigeria’s recurring rotation of service chiefs will not end the country’s worsening security challenges unless backed by deep institutional reforms.
Bukarti made this known on Sunday Politics on Channels Television while reacting to President Bola Tinubu’s recent military shake-up, which saw General Olufemi Oluyede replace General Christopher Musa as Chief of Defence Staff.
Other new appointments include Major-General Waidi Shaibu as Chief of Army Staff, Air Vice Marshal Sunday Aneke as Chief of Air Staff, and Rear Admiral Idi Abbas as Chief of Naval Staff. Major-General Emmanuel Undiendeye retained his role as Chief of Defence Intelligence.
The changes, announced in a statement by presidential spokesman Sunday Dare, took immediate effect.
Bukarti, a Senior Fellow at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, acknowledged that the newly appointed officers were well qualified but warned that changing faces without structural reform amounts to mere rotation.
We’ve seen this cycle before. Leadership renewal without reform is just rotation and rotation alone won’t solve our national security problem, he said.
“The question isn’t their qualifications on paper, but whether they have the initiative to reform Nigeria’s security architecture.
He urged the new service chiefs to overhaul the nation’s approach to warfare, particularly against insurgency and banditry, which have persisted for over a decade.
Over the past three years, there’s been no dramatic shift in Nigeria’s fighting philosophy, he added. Until we reform the system and adopt modern strategies, rotating leaders will produce no meaningful change.
Bukarti also commented on reports that about 140 senior officers may retire following the reshuffle, noting that while it creates space for stagnated officers to advance, it also represents a significant loss of experience.
He described the mass exit as both a blessing and a setback, stressing the need for better succession planning and institutional stability.
On speculation linking the leadership change to coup fears, Bukarti dismissed any justification for a military takeover, saying coups have never succeeded in improving governance.
The military must remain under civilian authority, he said, urging political leaders to address citizens’ frustrations through effective governance rather than repression.
Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has questioned the timing of the reshuffle.
In a statement by its spokesman, Bolaji Abdullahi, the party described the move as “sudden” and called for transparency from the presidency.
The outgoing service chiefs General Musa, Vice Admiral Emmanuel Ogalla, and Air Marshal Hasan Bala Abubakar had served since June 2023, overseeing major operations against Boko Haram, ISWAP, and bandit groups across the North.
As Nigeria faces renewed security threats, analysts agree that only bold reforms not personnel rotation can deliver lasting stability.
