LAGOS: The retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, may soon rise to between N980 and above N1,000 per litre across Nigeria, following a fresh upward adjustment in the gantry loading price by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, industry stakeholders have indicated.
The development signals renewed pressure on Nigerian consumers already grappling with high transportation costs, food inflation, and rising energy expenses, as fluctuations in the global crude oil market continue to influence domestic petroleum pricing despite increased local refining capacity.
The anticipated increase comes barely months after relative stability returned to fuel prices following the commencement of large-scale operations at the Lagos-based refinery, which had raised expectations of sustained price moderation in Africa’s largest oil-producing nation.
Confirming the development on Monday, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, stated that marketers nationwide were already recalculating pump prices in response to the new ex-depot rate.
According to him, retail prices will ultimately depend on transportation logistics, distribution costs, and regional supply dynamics.
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Following the increase announced by Dangote Petroleum Refinery Limited the pump price of petrol will most likely range between N980 and over N1,000 per litre depending on location, Ukadike said.
“This adjustment is largely driven by the recent surge in global crude oil prices and rising replacement costs.
Industry operators explained that northern states and remote locations could experience even higher prices due to haulage expenses and supply chain inefficiencies.
A senior official at the refinery confirmed that the gantry price, the rate at which bulk buyers load petrol directly from the refinery had risen from N774 to N874 per litre, representing a significant increase within a short period.
The official attributed the adjustment primarily to volatility in international crude oil benchmarks. Yes, the price has been reviewed.
The adjustment became necessary because of changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs, the official disclosed.
Market intelligence platform petroleumprice.ng also confirmed that the revised price had already reflected across several downstream supply channels, suggesting an imminent nationwide adjustment in retail pump prices.
In a notice circulated to petroleum marketers, the refinery stated: Dear Valued Customer, PMS is currently available for purchase. Please be informed that the current price is N874 per litre. Thank you for choosing Dangote.
The increase followed a temporary suspension of petrol loading operations at the refinery effective midnight on March 2, 2026, after international crude prices climbed above $80 per barrel.
Although supply of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) continued uninterrupted, several private depot owners reportedly halted petrol sales to reassess pricing structures.
A downstream operator familiar with depot operations explained that marketers were unwilling to sell existing stock below replacement cost.
Many depot owners stopped PMS sales temporarily because of the crude oil rally. The market is already factoring in risk premiums,” the operator said.
“Nobody wants to sell products today and replace them tomorrow at a loss.
The pause triggered cautious buying among marketers, raising concerns about short-term supply tightness in some regions.
Energy analysts attribute the latest petroleum price pressure to escalating geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have rattled global energy markets.
The crisis heightened fears of disruptions around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
Brent crude prices surged sharply following coordinated military actions targeting Iranian missile installations and command centres. The escalation reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, alongside dozens of senior officials.
Iran subsequently launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli territories and United States military facilities across the Persian Gulf region, intensifying fears of a prolonged regional conflict capable of disrupting global oil supply chains.
Oil traders reacted immediately, pushing Brent crude for April delivery up by nearly nine percent to about $79 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose close to eight percent.
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains officially open, maritime activity has reportedly declined by nearly 70 percent due to heightened security risks.
The narrow waterway facilitates the daily movement of approximately 20–21 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products, accounting for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Major international shipping firms have either rerouted vessels or temporarily suspended passage through the corridor amid rising war-risk insurance premiums, which have reportedly surged by up to 50 percent.
Energy experts warn that continued instability could push crude prices beyond $90 per barrel a threshold that historically translates into higher fuel prices for import-dependent economies like Nigeria.
Investment banking giant JPMorgan Chase projected that Brent crude could climb as high as $120 per barrel if hostilities persist long enough to disrupt sustained oil flows from Gulf producers.
According to the bank, regional oil exporters may only maintain normal output levels for about 25 days before storage constraints force production shutdowns.
Despite Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity spearheaded by the Dangote facility, analysts note that petrol pricing remains tied to international crude benchmarks.
Nigeria produces crude oil but still prices refined petroleum products based on global market realities, including shipping costs, foreign exchange fluctuations, and feedstock pricing.
Experts argue that full insulation from global shocks may only occur when multiple domestic refineries operate competitively and crude supply arrangements become fully localized.
Amid these market challenges, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has unveiled broader investment ambitions aimed at accelerating Africa’s industrial transformation.
Speaking in a recent international media interview, Dangote stressed that refining represents only one component of a long-term strategy focused on industrial self-sufficiency.
We have to industrialize Africa, Dangote said, emphasizing that reliable electricity, steel production, and modern port infrastructure remain essential foundations for sustainable economic growth.
The conglomerate is now exploring major investments in electricity generation to address Nigeria’s chronic power shortages, which continue to constrain manufacturing productivity nationwide.
Nigeria’s national grid currently struggles to generate below 5,000 megawatts for a population exceeding 200 million people a figure widely considered inadequate for industrial expansion.
By comparison, the Dangote Group reportedly operates captive power systems exceeding 1.5 gigawatts across its industrial facilities.
According to company disclosures, the Dangote Group refinery complex currently produces approximately 650,000 barrels of refined petroleum products daily, making it one of the largest single-train refineries globally.
Production capacity is expected to expand significantly within the next three years as optimisation projects and petrochemical integrations advance.
The refinery alone employs about 30,000 workers, with roughly 80 percent being Nigerians. Planned expansion into steel manufacturing, ports, and energy infrastructure could increase total employment within the group to nearly 65,000 jobs.
Economic analysts believe such investments could reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imports, stabilise foreign exchange demand, and strengthen long-term energy security.
However, in the immediate term, Nigerians may face renewed economic strain if petrol prices cross the N1,000-per-litre threshold.
Transportation fares, food prices, and production costs are highly sensitive to fuel price movements, meaning the latest adjustment could trigger inflationary ripple effects across multiple sectors.
Small businesses, logistics operators, and manufacturers remain particularly vulnerable, as energy expenses already account for a significant share of operating costs.
With global oil markets remaining unpredictable, industry stakeholders warn that petrol price stability may depend largely on geopolitical developments rather than domestic production capacity alone.
For now, marketers and consumers alike are bracing for another adjustment cycle — underscoring the continued linkage between Nigeria’s local fuel economy and global energy politics.
