SUBSBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections noticed each important good points for far-right events – in France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European Individuals’s Get together (EPP), which noticed its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This bolstered the EPP’s position as a central participant within the European Parliament and a key voice in EU coverage and management appointments.
The large winners amongst far-right events had been Marine Le Pen’s Nationwide Rally in France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, which means the far proper’s voices shall be extra influential within the European Parliament on points starting from immigration to Ukraine to spending typically.
To investigate the winners and losers within the EU elections and their impression on European affairs, The Cipher Temporary spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and at the moment President of the EPP’s assume tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Research. Dzurinda mentioned the potential impression of the elections in a dialog with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Temporary’s Chief Worldwide Correspondent. Dzurinda additionally spoke in regards to the “enormous problem” of disinformation campaigns in Europe, and voiced assist for harder controls over social media content material.CRI
THE CONTEXT
- The middle-right European Individuals’s Get together (EPP) secured 190 seats within the European Parliament within the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has 1 / 4 of the physique’s 720 seats, making it finest poised to set European Union.
- Far-right teams additionally made main good points throughout the bloc, together with in France and Italy. Total, some 150 seats within the European Parliament had been received by far-right events.
- Ursula von der Leyen is in search of a second time period as president of the European Fee. She is a transparent frontrunner, because the lead candidate of the European Individuals’s Get together.
- French President Emmanuel Macron known as for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after good points by France’s far-right within the European Parliament elections.
- U.Okay. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak additionally has known as for a snap election, in Britain’s case for July 4, months sooner than normal elections had been anticipated.
THE INTERVIEW
Mikuláš Dzurinda
Mikuláš Dzurinda is the previous prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held numerous positions in authorities since first getting into politics in 1990. As soon as he grew to become prime minister and fashioned a coalition authorities in 1998, Dzurinda launched far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to start the method of becoming a member of the EU and NATO. After being re-elected in 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to grow to be a member of the EU and NATO in 2004, a course of which he actively took half in from the start. Slovakia gained independence in 1993.
This interview has been calmly edited for brevity and readability.
The Cipher Temporary: A lot of the worldwide media reported in regards to the far-right good points on the EU elections. How do you’re taking the outcomes of the elections?
Dzurinda: I don’t assume that the state of affairs is so dramatic. Look, it’s true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some good points, however we, the European Individuals’s Get together, received much more. I’m fairly extra optimistic than pessimistic. I’m pleased as a result of my household, the European Individuals’s Get together, received closely and that’s enormous. I might say there’s a enormous coalition potential on our facet.
The Cipher Temporary: What do you concentrate on the leads to particular person international locations – about Germany, for instance, and Hungary? There have been some sudden outcomes, perhaps in each, and in Slovakia as effectively.
Dzurinda: You’re proper. However look, let’s begin with the primary. In my eyes, the worst is France. As a result of Madame Le Pen shouldn’t be solely very robust today, she can be very harmful in my thoughts and France issues so much. We each know that very effectively.
A greater state of affairs is in Germany. On one facet, the AFD (Different for Germany) can be harmful and so they completed in second place, profitable over the socialists. There’s additionally enormous excellent news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the longer term German chancellor, will assist Europe and transatlantic relations so much.
Even in Hungary, at first sight, you may be pessimistic as a result of Viktor Orban remains to be there. However there may be additionally enormous excellent news in Hungary. The brand new chief of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored nearly 30%. He’s younger, he’s charismatic. He needs to affix the European Individuals’s Get together, our household, so I take Hungary (as) a optimistic fairly than damaging.
The Cipher Temporary: He created the celebration three months in the past – and that’s what was stunning to everyone in Hungary, that in a single day he gained this unimaginable variety of votes and seats.
Dzurinda: Precisely, and it demonstrates that folks perhaps are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians understand very effectively that the EU is a superb undertaking, that this can be very necessary additionally for them, for the Hungarians. The identical state of affairs in Slovakia – I’m very sad as a result of we, the EPP household, suffered – we misplaced three of 4 MEPs. However once more, the excellent news is that our liberal political celebration received the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) Fico. So there may be additionally a great hope in Slovakia, and eventually we are going to beat these anti-European forces.
The Cipher Temporary: Let’s discuss a bit extra about France. President Macron known as early elections in France primarily based on the outcomes of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is {that a} good choice? Dangerous choice?
The Cipher Temporary: It’s perhaps a fairly chaotic choice. I can think about how depressed Mr. Macron grew to become after watching the ultimate outcome. And on the opposite facet, as a politician, I can perceive that one thing needed to be performed by him. So to some extent, his choice to name for a snap election may be understood. I count on a brand new cohabitation in France, when Mr. Macron will keep because the president of the nation and the federal government shall be dominated by the Nationwide Rally, (the celebration of ) Madame Le Pen, with perhaps a brand new star, a brand new prime minister. There’s a saying that the whole lot dangerous comes with one thing good, and perhaps the excellent news is that the celebration of Madame Le Pen shall be actually incompetent after working the nation for half a 12 months, one 12 months or two years, we are going to see. However anyway, it’s a stunning growth there.
The Cipher Temporary: So perhaps that’s what President Macron is relying on – to allow them to fail?
Dzurinda: Perhaps. Perhaps it’s to some extent an emotional choice, a chaotic choice. However on the opposite facet, there may be additionally one thing rational past that.
The Cipher Temporary: Let’s discuss (European Fee President) Ursula von der Leyen. It looks as if her positions are very robust and she or he made it identified that she needs a second time period because the president. How do you assume her probabilities look? There have been conversations about (her) aligning with Italian (Prime Minister) Meloni as effectively. Do you assume that’s doable?
Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s place immediately is far stronger than earlier than the elections. Some persons are drained or fed up together with her, as a result of don’t neglect, we went by main crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and final however not least, we confronted the struggle of Russia towards Ukraine. So one can think about that some individuals had been a bit drained with this fee. However after the elections, it’s clear that she has performed an excellent job. She was very affected person. She was in a position to attain compromises. And you already know very effectively that Europe is predicated on compromise.
So immediately I’m fairly optimistic. And I consider that many individuals, and lots of MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, could have been hesitating about her, however now they understand very effectively that there’s just one possibility left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And that is my expectation.
On the subject of technique, she’s performed effectively in my eyes. She says, Let’s discuss three main points: The primary is the rule of legislation, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European Home. And quantity three is Ukraine, and I’m prepared to speak to each political faction who’s following and respecting these three primary ideas.
She is opening the door not just for the Greens from the left, but additionally from the ECR from the appropriate. Madame Meloni made us shocked previously. The girl shouldn’t be solely very rational, but additionally devoted to democracy, rule of legislation, and final however not least, to Ukraine as effectively.
The Cipher Temporary: Do you assume there shall be a brand new (European) excessive commissioner for protection?
Dzurinda: I might vote for that. Perhaps you may be shocked. However on the Marten Centre, the assume tank of the Individuals’s Get together, we got here up with the concept of European protection as an integral a part of NATO in 2016. On the time, I used to be confronted by many individuals in Europe (asking), What do I would like? However we thought, particularly after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the state of affairs is critical. And I nonetheless consider that this example could be very critical. America is busy, and shall be very, very busy with China, with the Indo-Pacific, and we’ve got Ukraine. That is our neighbor, our rapid neighborhood. Now we’ve got the Center East disaster and lots of different challenges. We have to be stronger, and we have to grow to be a dependable, full-fledged accomplice of the US on this transatlantic household.
The Cipher Temporary: We now have snap elections developing within the UK, in France. We now have elections in the US. What are your expectations of those elections and what do you assume their impression could be on transatlantic relations?
Dzurinda: It is a essential subject. The axis between the US and the UK was so necessary and essential within the time of the Chilly Struggle, for safety, for the way forward for transatlantic relations and democratic international locations.
In these instances, perhaps there may be not a lot cause to be optimistic, however I need to be optimistic. I believe because of the custom and in addition because of the understanding that we want one another. Even in the US, I’m not so tragically pessimistic. On the subject of the potential victory of Donald Trump, I consider that this axis between the UK and the US will proceed, and that the EU ought to assist. The EU ought to contribute on this path to spice up this custom of the axis.
The largest query mark in my eyes is France. On one facet, the French president could be very robust. You already know very effectively that he has very robust competence. On the opposite facet, I’m pondering an increasing number of in regards to the subsequent presidential elections in France. If the pattern continues, it implies that Madame Le Pen on the finish of the day will grow to be the French president. On this case, I consider that she’s going to modify a bit her strategy. Everybody was shocked by Madame Meloni’s insurance policies (in Italy). I consider that additionally within the case of Marine Le Pen we could also be shocked. Consider me, I’ve some expertise, and the phrase seems to be totally different should you look (on the state of affairs) if you’re on the horse, in comparison with if you find yourself standing subsequent to the horse – the state of affairs is totally totally different. You might have duty. Individuals are not solely not solely watching however anticipating.
The Cipher Temporary: I’d like to speak to you about disinformation. Recently, in democracies, this has been a really massive subject. In some instances, there are claims that disinformation truly performed some position within the consequence of the elections. Did you see it as a difficulty throughout these elections within the EU? Do you see it as a bigger subject and do you will have any recommendations on counter it?
Dzurinda: There’s a enormous problem dealing with us – this disinformation and propaganda. We’re very pleased that we’re free, and you may write what you need or you may publish on social media, however what we miss is the connection between freedom and duty. So now we must always assume extra severely about this second dimension of duty. I’m going to say one thing unpopular: (we must always take into consideration) management social media, make individuals liable for the whole lot which they’re publishing.
It isn’t simple. Russian propaganda particularly – it is extremely, very influential. It occurs not solely to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the international locations of the previous communist bloc. It occurs in France, it occurs in Greece, in Italy, that is actually an enormous, enormous problem laying forward of us. And it’s not simply social media media retailers. There are additionally many operations of diplomats, official diplomats within the embassies in our international locations.
The Cipher Temporary: And do you see that persons are waking as much as it, or persons are objecting to it in any method?
Dzurinda: Not sufficiently. It is vitally patchy. For some individuals, it’s simpler to consider in such catchy eventualities.
The Cipher Temporary:And more often than not these eventualities are very emotional.
Dzurinda: Not solely emotional, but additionally related or associated to your difficulties. In a free world, you haven’t solely the winners, you will have additionally individuals which might be dissatisfied and even individuals who misplaced so much – and propaganda, disinformation, particularly from the Kremlin, could be very, very efficient to deal with, to achieve out to those individuals.
