Petru Clej/BBCFor both Moldova and Ukraine, Tuesday, June 25 will be a momentous day, as the European Union embarks on years of talks aimed at incorporating the two countries as new members.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu, a leading advocate for the European path, has set 2030 as her target for joining the EU, but her country faces a long and arduous road to membership.
Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, has the feel of a European city. Young musicians sing Whitney Houston’s “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” outside a trendy restaurant as Moldovans stroll by. However, the city’s buildings reflect its Tsarist, Romanian, and Soviet past alongside its vibrant present.
Moldova’s population of 2.6 million is small by European standards, with one in five people living in the capital.
President Maia Sandu enjoys a strong reputation among EU leaders, not least for her fluency in English and French. She travels to EU summits in economy class and dresses in jeans and sneakers.
It is widely believed that Moldova’s move towards the EU is closely linked to the conflict in neighboring Ukraine. Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe, is situated between Ukraine and Romania. It is riddled with corruption and largely sustains itself through remittances sent by its large diaspora across the EU.
Despite Russia’s efforts to discredit Moldova’s European aspirations, the connection with the rest of Europe remains vital.
Earlier this month, President Maia Sandu posted a photo on social media when Moldova’s footballers played against Ukraine in Chisinau. When President Sandu signed a decree last week on EU accession talks, she spoke of Moldova becoming part of a “stronger, more united Europe.”
However, the Kremlin noted that while Moldova is a sovereign state, its “future interests” should also be linked to Russian markets and the “integration processes” of the former Soviet territory.
Despite its Romanian-speaking majority, Moldova is a former Soviet republic, and much of its eastern fringe is home to a pro-Moscow separatist region called Transnistria. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv closed the 452-kilometer (280-mile) border it shares with Transnistria within days.
Russian troops have never left since the breakup of the USSR, and the region is a reminder of Moscow’s long arm in its former republics.
When President Sandu signed last week’s decree, she may have had one eye on two significant votes in October. She aims to be re-elected in the presidential election, and a referendum is being held to enshrine her country’s path to EU membership in the constitution.
Moldova is divided into pro- and anti-EU camps, and its biggest obstacle is Transnistria.
“This problem cannot be solved overnight,” admits pro-government deputy Oazu Nantoi, but now that the border with Ukraine is closed, he is optimistic. “We influence to put pressure on this separatist regime,” he told the BBC. “Joint customs checks are carried out between Moldova and Ukraine at the Cuciurgan border crossing, so Transnistria has become an enclave
Petru Clej/BBCBefore joining the EU, Moldova needs to demonstrate strong democratic and judicial guarantees. Valeriu Renita, an opposition journalist for the pro-Russian social group Sansa (The Alternative), claims Chisinau is just falling short of that.
“The federal government has closed 13 tv channels, 30 websites, judicial reform goes badly; some would say the nation is a dictatorship,” he told the BBC.
The use of her social gathering was prohibited during the November native elections, and Renita refutes the claim that the opposition in Moldova is carrying out orders from Moscow.
The man at the center of Russia’s purported attempt to undermine Moldova is fugitive business magnate Ilan Shor, who was found guilty five years ago in absentia of embezzling $1 billion from Moldovan banks.
Now a dual citizen of Russia and Israel, Shor coordinates pro-Russian and anti-EU troops in Moldova on an as-needed basis from Moscow. These pro-Russian teams recently convened a convention in Moscow, and upon the return of some of the members to Chisinau, the authorities seized more than €1 million in cash.
Moldova Timeline
1812: The eastern part of the Principality of Moldova is annexed by Tsarist Russia and renamed Bessarabia.
1918: As Tsarist Russia crumbles, Bessarabia becomes part of the Kingdom of Romania.
1940: After Stalin’s ultimatum, Romania cedes Bessarabia to the USSR. It is then combined with Transnistria to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic.
1991-92: Moldova declares its independence from the Soviet Union. After a brief civil conflict, Transnistrian separatists, supported by the Soviet Army, are stationed on the east bank of the Nistru River.
Language and Demographics
Language is the main dividing line in Moldova. Romanian/Moldovan speakers, who make up around 80% of Moldova’s 2.6 million residents (excluding Transnistria), are strongly in favor of EU integration. Ethnic minorities, including Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gagauz, who primarily speak Russian, are generally against it. Moldova’s government states that many of these minorities have been heavily influenced by Russia’s “information war.”
Gagauz Minority
The Gagauz, a Turkish Christian ethnic group in an autonomous region of southern Moldova, are led by a pro-Kremlin governor named Evgenia Gutul. She is a well-known supporter of Ilan Shor, and earlier this year, Moldova’s ambassador to the EU, Janis Mazeiks, complained that it was impossible to maintain a dialogue with her.
EU Support and Russian Influence
Domestically, opinion polls place support for the EU in the October 20 referendum at between 55% and 65%. However, considering the hundreds of thousands of Moldovans who live and work in the European Union, the “Yes” vote seems assured, at least for now. With their votes, Maia Sandu could potentially achieve an absolute victory in the first round of the presidential elections.
Despite this, Russia’s influence is ever-present, whether in the conflict in neighboring Ukraine or in fake news that appears on platforms like TikTok or Telegram. The government in Chisinau fears that Moscow will try to foment violence in the run-up to the October referendum.
Propaganda and Misinformation
President Sandu has already been the subject of a fake video, while another fake featured a military camp for Moldovan children. Galina Vasilieva, who edits the Romanian and Russian-language news site NewsMaker, says Moldovans are highly susceptible to propaganda. “In the 2016 presidential election, there was a fake video claiming that Maia Sandu had agreed with EU leaders to accept Syrian refugees. Many believed it and she lost the election.
Petru Clej/BBC
