Catholic Church: The 10 Contenders Leading Cardinals to Succeed Pope Francis

ROME-ITALY: The Catholic Church has entered a solemn and sacred period known as sede vacante,” the seat being vacant, following Pope Francis’s passing on Easter Monday at the age of 88. As bells tolled across Vatican City and faithful gathered in mourning, the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics now await the selection of the Church’s 267th pope.

The conclave that follows is one of the most mysterious and consequential processes in religious and global affairs. Held behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel, it brings together all cardinals under the age of 80 to vote in secrecy until a new pontiff is chosen by a two-thirds majority.

With no obvious heir to Francis’ legacy, the College of Cardinals, now more global and ideologically diverse than ever, faces a defining choice: continue down the reformist and inclusive path Francis began, or return to a more traditionalist interpretation of doctrine and governance.

As the world watches, ten cardinals are emerging as the most talked-about papabili. Below, we break down not just who they are, but how their theological views and the voting blocs they might rally shape their chances.

1. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

• Theology: Progressive, pastoral

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• Voting Bloc: Reformist, Global South, Asian-African coalition
  Often seen as the closest ideologically to Francis, Tagle is a champion of missionary outreach, humility in leadership, and social justice. Fluent in multiple languages and beloved across Asia and Africa, he is a bridge between the Global South and Rome. His theology is centered around mercy, inclusion, and service to the poor. A Francis 2.0, if the reformist bloc consolidates around him, he could be a unifying figure.

2. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

• Theology: Moderate traditionalist, diplomatic pragmatist                                                     

• Voting Bloc: Italian/Curial cardinals, European moderates
  As Secretary of State, Parolin has played a key role in Vatican diplomacy, especially with China. While loyal to Francis, he is more reserved in reform and liturgical matters. His candidacy appeals to those seeking balance, maintaining Church unity while avoiding abrupt shifts in doctrine. He would have strong support from curial insiders and European centrists.

3. Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)

• Theology: Conservative, doctrinally rigorous                                                                     

• Voting Bloc: Eastern Europe, doctrinal conservatives
  Erdő is an academic with a strong grounding in canon law and theology. He has led opposition to certain aspects of the synodal process, especially where they touch on doctrinal flexibility. He represents the wing of the Church wary of too much decentralization and innovation. If the conservative bloc is seeking someone doctrinally sound and globally palatable, he could be their man.

4. Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (USA)

• Theology: Ultra-conservative, traditionalist                                                                         

• Voting Bloc: Hardline conservatives, Latin Mass defenders
  Burke is a lightning rod—admired by staunch traditionalists and criticized by moderates and progressives. He opposes Communion for divorced and remarried Catholics, LGBTQ inclusion, and the liturgical reforms of Vatican II. Although unlikely to gain wide support, he may act as a rallying figure for hardliners who could negotiate in exchange for influence.

5. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

• Theology: Progressive, social justice-oriented                                                                 

• Voting Bloc: European progressives, Sant’Egidio movement
  Zuppi is deeply committed to peacemaking and outreach to marginalized communities. His theology mirrors Francis’ in tone and emphasis on a “Church of the poor.” He also supports greater lay involvement and synodality. Popular among younger bishops and progressive clergy, Zuppi could gain momentum if the conclave leans toward continuity with Francis’ legacy.

6. Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk (Netherlands)

• Theology: Doctrinally strict, bioethics-focused                                                                 

• Voting Bloc: Northern European traditionalists
  A former medical doctor, Eijk is known for his strong positions on euthanasia, assisted suicide, and sexual ethics. He appeals to those concerned with moral clarity in secularized societies. While he’s not seen as a populist figure, his theological consistency makes him a respected voice among traditionalists.

7. Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta)

• Theology: Synodal, reform-minded                                                                           

• Voting Bloc: Synodal process supporters, Francis loyalists
  As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Grech is central to the synodal approach promoted by Pope Francis. He advocates for a more inclusive, listening Church—especially on the role of women, laity, and regional churches. While not a charismatic front-runner, his deep involvement in the reform agenda could position him as a consensus candidate among like-minded bishops.

8. Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)

• Theology: Social justice-focused, moderate conservative                                             

• Voting Bloc: African coalition, reformist moderates
  Turkson is admired for his work on environmental justice and human development. Theologically moderate, he balances tradition with a strong concern for issues of economic inequality and peace. His election would be historic, making him the first Black pope in modern history—and his global profile would appeal to those seeking a symbol of the Church’s growing diversity.

9. Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy)

• Theology: Theologically conservative with academic depth                                             

• Voting Bloc: Italian conservatives, theological elite
  Once seen as a strong contender in the 2013 conclave, Scola is now older and less visible, but still commands respect for his scholarship and pastoral experience. His chances are slim due to age and changing Church demographics, but he might play a behind-the-scenes role in influencing others’ votes.

10. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy

• Theology: Diplomatic, bridge-builder                                                                           

• Voting Bloc: Middle East delegation, moderates valuing interfaith dialogue
  As Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa has managed delicate religious and political tensions. While not a high-profile papabile, his diplomatic experience and measured theological stance make him an interesting outsider candidate, especially if a compromise figure is sought.

Voting Blocs in the Conclave: What to Watch

1. Progressive/Francis-aligned Bloc

   • Supports synodality, greater inclusiveness, and environmental and social justice.

   • Likely Candidates: Tagle, Zuppi, Grech

2. Traditionalist/Doctrinal Conservative Bloc

   • Emphasizes liturgical tradition, bioethical orthodoxy, and centralized authority.

   • Likely Candidates: Burke, Eijk, Erdő

3. Moderate/Curial Bloc

   • Values stability, diplomacy, and incremental reform.

   • Likely Candidates: Parolin, Turkson, Pizzaballa

4. Geopolitical Blocs

   • African & Asian cardinals may seek a pope from the Global South (Tagle, Turkson)

   • Italian/Eastern European bloc could rally around a familiar or local figure (Zuppi, Parolin, Erdő)

A Pivotal Moment for the Church

The outcome of this conclave will be monumental. Will the cardinals opt to continue the reformist energy of Pope Francis or pivot back to traditional forms of authority? Will they choose a pope from Europe or signal a new era with leadership from Africa, Asia, or Latin America?

Regardless of who is elected, the next pontiff will face immense challenges—spiritual, institutional, and geopolitical. And the world will be watching as the smoke rises, once again, from the Sistine Chapel chimney.