This year, the first debate between Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, set to air nationally on Tuesday, could be pivotal as the race remains virtually tied with just eight weeks until the November 5 election.
Trump has already launched a series of racist and sexist attacks against Harris. He has falsely claimed that Harris, who is Black and South Asian, only recently embraced her Black identity. He has also shared a crude online message insinuating she used sex to advance her career, and has labeled her as “weak,” “dumb as a rock,” and “lazy,” reinforcing harmful stereotypes about women and Black individuals.
How Harris responds to these attacks in front of a potentially vast television audience could be crucial, with significant risks for both candidates. According to interviews with eight pollsters, debate and political experts, and Black activists, Trump’s insults could alienate important voter demographics, such as women, Black voters, and moderates.
John Geer, a Vanderbilt University professor specializing in presidential politics, noted, “Such rhetoric could drive these groups away.”Despite this, Republican strategist Ford O’Connell argues that the close nature of the race indicates Trump’s attacks have not significantly impacted his support.
For Harris, who could make history as the first female, Black, and South Asian American president, the debate presents a complex challenge. If she dismisses Trump’s attacks as she has on the campaign trail, she might be perceived as not defending herself adequately.
Engaging with Trump’s rhetoric could pull her into his style of mudslinging and potentially lead to criticisms, whether justified or not, that she is leveraging her race and gender.
Kelly Dittmar, the director of research at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics, cautions that a forceful response might reinforce the stereotype of the “angry Black woman.” “If Kamala addresses these attacks, will she be accused of playing the race card or the gender card?” Dittmar ask
Personal Attacks
The former president has struggled to find an effective attack against Kamala Harris. Unlike Hillary Clinton, Harris does not carry decades of political baggage and has energized the Democratic base since taking over Joe Biden’s struggling reelection campaign.
A July poll by the Democratic research firm Blueprint revealed that personal attacks targeting Harris’s race, gender, or family were “incredibly unproductive” across all voter groups, including independents, according to Evan Roth Smith, a pollster with the firm.
Criticisms focusing on immigration and economic policies or framing Harris as a California liberal performed better, Smith noted. The firm also tested responses to attacks on Harris’s race and gender.
It found that countering by calling Trump racist was less effective than framing the insults as a distraction from his “extreme” agenda.
Some of Trump’s attacks, such as questioning Harris’s Blackness, are so obviously false that Harris doesn’t need to address them directly, said Andra Gillespie, an Emory University professor specializing in African American politics. ”
They’re so outrageously ridiculous that everyone can see through them,” she said. “There’s no need for her to respond.”However, Aaron Kall, a debate expert at the University of Michigan, warns that Trump should not be underestimated.
Kall points out that Trump is a skilled debater, adept at using sharp retorts and unpredictable tactics to dominate the stage. His background as a reality TV star helps him command attention and connect with voters.
“He might be the best counter-punching debater of all time,” Kall said. “He disrupts opponents’ talking points and speaks in relatable terms that resonate with undecided voters. He has a keen sense of what concerns them.”
